I was curious if anyone could help me through the math on the following prop bets: 1. What are my chances of rolling all of the place numbers(4,5,6,8,9,10) before rolling a seven? (I'm getting 6.82%) 2. What about rolling all other numbers (2,3,4,5,6,8,9,10,11,12)before a seven turns up? (I'm getting 1.52%) 3. I've seen several places (including [link] www.wizardofodds.com) that the probability of rolling 6 points in a row before a seven is 0.0162435%. Can anyone walk me through the math behind the "Fire Bet"? Thanks, dk

I was hoping someone could run this game for me. Bet one $5 chip on Don't Pass and Don't Come on every single roll of the dice. Have a starting bank roll of $1000. Could someone run that for me and give me the results. Thanks

Howdy, If you eliminated ALL special casino rules (like "Bar 12" for instance) and played craps with payouts according to the true odds would it still be a negative expectation game? So, you keep the current layout and rules except for any casino-mandated rules that interfer with a true odds-based play and payout. Example: You'd eliminate a Bar 12, but would change a Hardway 6 to pay according to true odds,etc. (I hope that those smart enough to find something stupid or wrong with this question will also try to understand what I'm asking as well.) TIA, Andrew

Howdy, I have learned so much here in just a few days. It should be obvious that I know little about Casinos and gambling. My recent two sessions at Circus-Circus were only the 4th&5th times I've ever played craps. (once before on a cruise ship and two short sessions at AC - and those were long ago). I want to describe what I saw at Circus- Circus. I was very hesitant at first - a common trait in Newbies at Craps Tables I understand. I was very impressed by the "local" who deftly played Yo-levens and High-Lows and would Buy 6&8 but refused the Come-out and always passed the dice. He had his girl with him and wore a uniform (security guard?) but was acting very "legit". He had chips moving all over the table, lots of prop bets while I just stood meekly raking in a few here and there from my Pass-line bets and an occasional Field bet (I was a little lucky there). He was deft. "This guy really knows his way around a Craps table," I thought. On the other end was a guy I mentally called, "Boris". - Eastern European accent but talked little, smoked more, and looked like he sucked lemons for a living. He was brimming with black chips though; He tossed quarters on the Hardways like he was feeding pigeons in the park. He had no qualms at barking at the Dealers and calling the Pitboss over for a dispute. He'd tell a Dealer right to his face, "Hell You !!, Hell You !" The guy knew evey bet on the table. He worked those C&E bets like a Pro and would go Doey-Don't on a whim. Finally the lousy performance of the dice was more than he could stand: The dice just weren't being good enough to suit him. "Phaw!", he spat. And spun around and stalked off. He was fearless.I admit, I was quiet and timid: Though later there were two Hardways that paid well for the measly nickel I threw on them. But mostly just plodding along Pass-line, Pass-line, Pass-line. It was fun to make points too - too bad I didn't understand odds and Come bets then. My only Enemy was alcohol. I had just spent two weeks on the road with my family touring the SW in a Minivan. I needed a drink or two or more. Those caught up with me eventually and led to sloppy play. But at least I knew it and walked away before disaster hit. End result: I took 80 to the table the first nite and walked away with 400. The next day I gave the 400 to my wife and 3 daughters to shop with and took another 110 to the same table and quit with 330 total. That went to bills. I had a great time. I wish I wasn't 2000 miles form Vegas, but what can you do? Now after a week of reading the ng, a craps book I enjoy, and a few sessions of wincraps my eyes have been opened in whole new ways !. Consider this your toke, Andrew

craps is a negative expectation game. the more you play, the more you will lose. the only way to win at craps is NOT with math but with altering the randomness of the dice. you can quote all the simulations you want... but they won't help you win.

Howdy, I would welcome any opinions, but two questions I'd ask would be: 1. Does it work even if you don't chase casino comps.?(also known as, "Why buy a $20 book for a free $5 meal?) 2. If it does work does it work any better than other strategies ?Say, Pass Bet, next roll odds on Pass & Come bet, next roll, Odds on Come and another Come (with odds to follow,...you get the idea I'm sure). And of course, eye out for Control Shooter or just plain hot streaks,etc. Andrew

After many hours of work, I have finally completed my treatise on the statistics of streaks and the probabilities involved, how to compute the expected number of trials for a streak of a given length, and a simple equation to estimate the probability of a streak. To get the exact probabilities, the web site referenced below contains a link to an Excel spreadsheet that can perform the computations. Because it's hard to convert the html equations to text for the newsgroup, and because it is quite long, I am not posting the text of the treatise here since it is easier to go to the following site: * [link] * This work on streaks has also generated a new question for the FAQ: Q16 What are the probabilities of streaks? For example: (a) To see a streak of 20 rolls of the dice with no seven, how many rolls total can I expect to wait? (b) What is the expected number of decisions to get a streak of 8 losses? (c) What is the probability of getting a streak of 8 losses in 100 games? The next time the FAQ is posted, the answer will be there. Steve F.

What ever happened to Ideas on how to play craps.On this board. We used to have at least 30 or 40 pepole, reporting their trials and errors. The real nitty gritty on how things were going. Now we start off with some off the wall BS, post, and it last for weeks. The geeks have taken the buard over. Teddy's Dad. I wan't to know what happened in Tahoe. Winnah 5, I wan't to know what happened on your last outing. Visitor, Q2, Cap't craps, Anybody that has abything to say. Alan Shank has gone out of his way to explain the math on what should happen and how. Put Steen in there also. There are a lot of good people to give you the odd/s for or against a method. Al krigman says if you play nothing but the 6&8 place. You will be ahead more than %50 sometime in your session playing %7.2 of your bankroll on each hand. There is no math to help you in a normal session. The math can tell you your best bets as explained by Shank in detail several times. Alan try's to help not hurt! What i'm trying to say is if you have something to say. Say it! This is Rec. crap/s. Not Rec. Math or spelling or education. com. Gather up every thing you can from the math, But if you are playing for the enjoyment. Bet your gut, as long as you arn.t over betting your bank roll. I know I POST some weird drunk ass *** from time to time.{ok all the time} But is out of fustration from what this board used to be and what it is now. Jim Ferr, if you don't say any thing else at least say Hello. REX

Can anyone tell me how often a seven is rolled. For instance, how many times it took 1 roll of the dice to produce a seven. How many times took 2 rolls of the dice to produce a seven. how many times it took 3 rolls to produce a seven, 4 rolls, 5 rolls, etc. Thanks.

The casino expects to break even on the odds bets, but the majority of all players can expect to lose on the odds bets..so for the majority of us craps players, it's not a "fair" "0" expectation bet! A bit of a quasi paradox . JB

I have always been amazed at how some people play the "games" at a casino, but last night, I saw an abundance of "poor" play (in my opinion any way). At the craps table, a lady was playing $25 don't pass with double odds. She never took a 6 or 8 for a point. If a 6/8 came out, she moved the bet to don't come, if a 6/8 showed there, she waved it off. Some one mentioned placing the 6/8...but she ignored that. Then I saw several players playing deuces wild on the poker machines, and actually saw a lady hold two deuces and a 6-8-9 off suit, because she thought she had a straight (that's what she told her playing companion). I won't even go into all the other "bad" holds she made...along with several other players. Then I saw several players playing the dollar poker machines one dollar at a time...they give up the correct payoff on the royal..plus they were so far from playing optimum VP that it was crazy! I won't mention the "bad" play I saw on the BJ tables..seems the only play I saw that most players were playing to the "real" HA was the roulette table (they didn't have a choice) . I wonder how much the casino makes off of "bad" pay? JB

The Hat Problem Setup: There are three of us. We will be given black or white hats to wear. We can only see the hat color of the others in the group. We can not see our own hat color. We are sent into a room to concoct an ongoing strategy that allows the group to win the contest. Rules: Only one member of the group can speak. If more than one speaks, the turn is a loss. The speaking member guesses his own hat color. If the speaking member is correct, the group wins. If the speaking member is incorrect, the group loses. Task: Do better than the 50% that should be achieved if a single designated player guesses his hat color randomly. There is a logical algorithm that will allow this. You have all the information necessary to solve the problem. No tricks are required. Onward thru the fog, Mason Since Monty Hall didn't fly, perhaps this one will. It represents quite a big deal in current information theory.

Boxmen don't take tips. I would assume they are paid hourly wage plus a bonus on the "profit" of the table. Is this correct? Is it normal for Boxmen to be Pit Bosses on other days.

Wow.."random walks on a plane, and in space" I think I've died and gone to heaven!! I have almost figured out how to "mix" the W-L's with the bet value in an individual random walk. The right-left and up-down is interesting, but when I do the three dimensional, and add the in-out to the left-right and up-down, I am having trouble shaping my paper into a sphere! Why didn't you "all" tell me there was more than one chapter in the probability books!! (Alan will probably suggest that I should have spelled "dimensional" differently!) JB