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Craps question for blackjack playersThis is a discussion thread · 6 replies rowsdower: I don't know if anyone has heard about this, but a San Diego Indian casino, Pechanga, is now offering "card craps". I just saw it last night and was amazed. It's a normal crap table, but instead of dice, two card shoes sit by the boxman, facing each other. When it's time to "roll", the boxman flips over a card from each shoe. The shoes only contain cards numbering ace-through-six, in equal proportions, and the cards are then treated like dice. (an ace plus a six = a seven, for example) In all other respects, the game is the same as normal craps.Now I realize why this game is being offered. Dice games are still illegal in California casinos, thus "card craps". But doesn't anyone think that this weird craps hybrid offers huge potential to the blackjack card counter? I'm not really a good card counter, and I certainly haven't analysed card craps, but it seems more than obvious to me that if I see a lot of aces, twos and threes appear from the card shoes, well then it would be in my best interest to bet on the high numbers like 8, 9 and 10 for the remainder of the shoe, since the shoe is now rich in 4s, 5s and 6s. A simple high/low count in this game could produce great results. Now, they were using a cut card, and it looked like it was about halfway deep into a 400 card shoe, so that's not great news, but still, doesn't anyone see potential here? Dice are random, but this card craps game is not. -Matt
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xarax: [nq:1]I don't know if anyone has heard about this, but a San Diego Indian casino, Pechanga, is now offering "card ... not great news, but still, doesn't anyone see potential here? Dice are random, but this card craps game is not.[/nq]If the cards are not replaced after each deal, then the game has a memory (dependent trials). The next step is to design a computer simulation to determine a count with betting strategy. By counting the cards, the probable sum of the next deal could be predicted with some success. If the probability indicates that fives and sixes are predominant, then bet on hard ten, eleven and twelve. The payoffs on those bets are good multiples. Likewise, when probability says ones and twos are predominant, then bet on hard four and low craps (2,3). The multipliers for these "special" bets should pay off well when the probability is high. I would predict that as soon as some computer geeks calculate the probabilities, counting and betting strategy, then game will get killed. Best to get in there now before someone else kills it. Good luck.
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Reno Master: [nq:1]If the cards are not replaced after each deal, then the game has a memory (dependent trials).[/nq]The use of shoes indicates that the cards are not replaced after each trial. Obviously, the dependent trials were the whole point of the original post. [nq:1]The next step is to design a computer simulation to determine a count with betting strategy. By counting the cards, ... some success. If the probability indicates that fives and sixes are predominant, then bet on hard ten, eleven and twelve.[/nq] Hop the hard 10 to maximize the "per roll" return! [nq:1]Likewise, when probability says ones and twos are predominant, then bet on hard four and low craps (2,3).[/nq] Likewise, hop the hard 4! Reno Master
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Deacon Bluez: The big problem here is that the cards are out and so are the true odds of a craps game. unless the game used only two sets of cards (Ace through 6) you are not getting true odds on the game by having these cards out of the shoe. If they were to use only six cards to represent each die then you would get the games correct odds. I agree they are very vulnerable to this game but so is the poor sob locked into a pass or come bet when the shoes go against them.What is the excitement for the player if they don't get to shoot?? Deacon
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Reno Master: [nq:1]The big problem here is that the cards are out and so are the true odds ofa craps game. unless ... of cards (Ace through 6)you are not getting true odds on the game by having these cards out of theshoe.[/nq]That's the whole point. Your "big problem" is what makes this craps game beatable. [nq:1]If they were to use only six cards to represent each die then you would get the games correct odds. ... game but so is the poor sob locked into a pass or come bet when the shoes go against them.[/nq] People that make -EV bets deserve to lose. [nq:1]What is the excitement for the player if they don't get to shoot??[/nq] I get excited by winning, not shooting. Let me make enough . Reno Master Remove MY PANTS to send me e-mail!
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Andy Noone: (Email Removed) (rowsdower) wrote, "...Now, they were using a cut card, and it looked like it was about halfway deep into a 400 card shoe, so that's not great news, but still, doesn't anyone see potential here?..."Suppose each shoe has 384 cards (16 decks of 24 cards each.) The player could keep two counts, one for each shoe, keeping track of remaining aces. The house edge for the craps 2 bet is 13.89%, but it would be a favorable bet when the product of true counts of aces gets high. I calculated that on the last roll, for shoes with the cut cards at 50%, the probability of having a positive craps-2 EV is 15.69%. And the average positve EV would be 1.3%. Bring friends to count other cards, so you could bet on craps 12 and the pair hop bets, too.
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rowsdower: [nq:1]Suppose each shoe has 384 cards (16 decks of 24 cards each.) The player could keep two counts, one for ... 1.3%. Bring friends to count other cards, so you could bet on craps 12 and the pair hop bets, too.[/nq]That's a good idea, but the more I think about it, the more difficulties I'm imagining would pop up in a real test of employing a count here. First there's the slow pace of the game. Say a "roll" occurs every 30 seconds. That's just two cards to add to my running count. I'm going to be waiting at that table for an hour, it would seem, just to have a true count that's strong enough to justify making some longshot wagers. And during that hour, I'll have to be gambling. I could lose my shirt just waiting for my favorable situation. I suppose I could back count the game from a distance, but for an hour? I think a more practical system for this game would be one that would let me gravitate early, on a slim true count, toward one end or the other of the 2-12 spectrum. Craps is a game where the house's edge is mild to start with (if you make the right bets) Just knowing whether to place the 8 vs the 6 would be a nice first step. A key question, I think, is can we use counting to predict the chances of the appearance of a seven, the most important number in the game. Knowing whether a seven is even slightly more or less likely to appear would have a huge effect on many craps wagers. Sadly, since any number can be used to make a seven, there's no one card to keep track of to help predict sevens. The only thing I can think of would be to keep track of pairings. Every two card pairing would either be high-high, low-low, or a mixture of high-low. And only the mixture of high-low can produce a seven. Therefore, the closer our high low count is to zero, the more likely a seven is to appear. If the cards are trending in one direction, in both shoes, the chance of a seven is decreased. It seems like there's so much ground to cover here. I sure would like to go back and break that game...
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