Subject: GCA "Can U Win in Small Games" Rerun
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Newsgroups: rec.gambling.poker
Date: 2002-11-14 03:28:21 PST
Can You Win in Small Games?
This is a post for people that think you will beat small limit games. It can be done and it is done, but not by the people you think and not for the length of time or the amounts stated. A few examples of why I will never get endorsements from an on-casino if I start a website, and why you are not able to beat small games for enough to make it worth while. We may as well discuss why poker and the casinos keep crying for new players also.
Playing On Line
Start with a concept we have 1000 players, some good, some better or worse. We give these players a bankroll of $5,000 each and limit them to a single day loss of $500. We have everyone play 40 hours for two weeks (10 days) or until their $500 is gone for the day. The limit will be $5.00-$10.00. A small limit, but higher than most of you people play.
The players deposit 1000 x $5,000 into an on-line poker casino. Do the math together now. 1000 players depositing $5,000 each =$5,000,000. Quite a tidy sum to begin with. Everyone has plenty of ammunition and will be able to survive the 2 weeks of playing because of limiting the losses to $500 a day.
On line poker allows more hands to be played every hour. A very conservative estimate will allow for 50 hands an hour of $3.00 a pot to be dropped. We figure this into the equation at a rate of $150 an hour. This is a low figure as most will agree. This experiment with 1000 players makes it able to accommodate 100 full tables of 10 players. Now it begins and I mean it begins.
Drops or collections in these games at this rate will mean 100 tables are dropping $150 an hour at each table or $15,000 an hour for the whole program. Multiply this $15,000 by the eight hours the games will be going and you see a $120,000 a day will be dropped into the casino's coffer's and put out of circulation. We continue playing for the whole two weeks in this experiment.
Dropping $120,000 a day for the 10 days, to consummate the two weeks, will allow you to see $1,200,000 has been dropped into the casino's coffers. The $3.00 a pot has in two weeks become 24% of the $5,000,000 the players initially started with. Provided these players kept playing, you see how quickly this money is gone. If this experiment went another few weeks, at least 50% of the money would be gone. How many players would be gone?
Numerous people would be ahead of the game. Out of 1000 that started, how many of you think will survive? This is a situation you are facing everyday. New players and fish (as you call them) will run out of money and will cease playing. The player pool will become smaller and smaller and give you an illusion the players are all better than before. Not the case, as most of the fish are now gone and will not return as they learn their lesson and realize they have a better chance of winning in other casino operations.
Most of you people don't realize what is occurring and continue to play. Before you know it, many players seem to be decent players, and there isn't much difference in playing ability. Money keeps going down the drain and most everyone is out of funds.
We have magazines and authors promoting poker, telling you the BIG BET theory. "Learn this concept and how to play well and you will make money", the promoters tell you. Problem is, this is a myth. Parity enters the game sooner or later, (at small levels and most levels) and everyone will be consumed by the drop at these small levels. These authors and on-line gambling site promoters keep coming with the same old spew, these games are beatable if you just acquire the knowledge needed.
They sell books promoting parity and leading you into ridiculous situations, as they can't beat the games either, for any significant amount. They spew out this Big Bet theory as it is the formula to successful winning at poker. You need something to base winning or losing on and this sounds like it has a ring of truth to it. It doesn't and is just a more spew to make you believe.
Ever wonder how people can spend so much time on these newsgroups telling you winning is simple? Most are employed in casino related business's or author books for poker. Certainly these books can help you play better if you haven't a clue to what you are doing. It doesn't matter if you know what you are doing or not. One way you lose your money, the other way you lose your money but play longer. It confuses you into thinking, ability will enable you to overcome these obstacles.
The smallest poker game you can play and have any chance of making a living off it is $10-$20 limit. Please don't tell me you have been playing for a living for 2 years now and know it can be done. Please get back to me in 5 years and tell me the same. Playing this level or the next level of $15-$30 is like having a $20,000 to $40,000 a year job with NO ADVANCEMENT or benefits. Playing these games for a living 30 years ago meant your earnings could put you into a pretty good position. Things change as does poker, and the drops or collections of today take so much away from your earnings. Figure inflation into the equation and you will see the ability to progress in poker is getting more and more limited.
In the past 30 years money has depreciated to about 15% of what it was at that time. You allow for larger amounts being taken out of games today and you will see poker is dying. Far more players today, however the games are far smaller and getting worse by the day. There is no reason to believe they will be getting larger except for the rare exceptions around the world.
Poker is dying whether people realize it or not. The reason is a simple concept known as GREED. The "death warrant" of poker was the opening of the numerous casinos in this country and the rest of the world. Players not having a choice previously as to what they could gamble on were forced to play poker as it was about the only game around. Now casinos and other forms of gambling proliferate the world over. People having NO CHANCE of winning at poker previously have other options to gamble today. They use them as their record in poker was very dismal. Any form of gambling gives them a better chance to win than poker offers them.
Gambling is a very addictive. Enticements are given in forms of free money to get you to sign up to gamble. All games offer these promotions. Do you think people are giving away free money? People are winning playing online poker and online gambling. Someone has to win for a while. Do you really expect the big losers to post their loses, or even post at all? What happens to the drops?
Poker is beatable at higher limits, honestly and by cheating. Believe one thing if you only believe one thing. Cheats are waiting for you at a certain level of play. These people have spent their life getting into these positions and know how to do this for profit. The professional poker player is a dying breed. They are on the verge of extinction.
Years before a player could go lower and build a bankroll to get back into play. Today's games don't allow for this anymore. The grinding is out, as games that let you grind are at levels where going broke will seriously affect your attitude and play. Advancement is not an easy thing anymore, since the lowest entry level to earn requires a bankroll of several thousand. You can envy professional poker players all you want, but the fact remains, few can make it and live handsomely and honestly.
People playing for recreation will soon find out the price for having a good time. Far better to put your brains to better use as the day of the professional poker player is coming to an end. The price for recreational poker playing can be put to better use.
If casino's want to lower their costs, eliminate the dealers and add shuffling machines. Increase surveillance and security as cheats would be easy to catch, barred and prosecuted. Scammers will still be a never-ending problem, but lowering costs will make the game more playable and more educational also. People would learn more and their attention span would greatly increase.
Jack-pots are another killer for poker. If skimming is occurring it comes from jack-pot skimming. You can't believe all the jack-pot money is put back into circulation. Read the small print and you realize expenses will come out of jack-pots somewhere. Eliminate them completely if poker is to become competitive. A rule of thumb for recreational players and beginners, if high stakes players don't want it, it is not good for the low stakes players either.
High stakes players pay less to play per betting unit and receive complementary meals. Doesn't it seem odd they pay the least as a unit and get the most out? The answer is plain and simple if you care to look. High stakes players are more organized and will not tolerate abusive playing rates. They will go to other places to play in a mass exodus if not accommodated. They understand what a dollar a pot means in the long run. It is time the beginners and recreational players learned also, in order to continue to play you must stay in funding.
Casinos are doing their best to squeeze every dollar out of the poker player. They are succeeding in a very nice fashion. More and more players are learning and believing the drivel that comes from casino propaganda. Problem is it will all eventually cease. Lower collections and cut costs, making the ability to play well, worth something. Rakes and drops are deterrents to good play. Poker should always be in time collections. Why penalize the better players or in your case the players that play more hands. Don't you realize these players will be gone the quickest and all you will have left are the ABC players waiting and waiting, while the drop is taking more and more.
Russ Georgiev