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Graph of 205 craps decisionsThis is a discussion thread · 35 replies alan: Hopefully this will work. Here are two links to the two graph pages showing the plotting of 205 craps decisions.Now the "cautions:" Each table, each player, each session or group of sessions will have different patterns. The only thing Im trying to show here is that there are patterns, and by using technical analysis popular with stock market charting, can be shown to indicate a future group of events. Keep in mind that it takes 25 or 30 decisions to find a pattern, and this does not present practical help for a craps player as it could take an hour or longer to find a pattern. First part of graph of 205 rolls:  Second part of graph of 205 rolls: http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v461/PerformanceNISMO/moneyla/craps 2.jpg Without writing a book about technical analysis what the graphs are showing is this: There are periods when the passline decisions are in a trend called a "base" or an "indecision pattern." When these trends are violated (trend line broken) to the upside or the downside a new pattern presents itself. In graph number #1, for example, the passline decisions are mixed, but when the base (bottom) is broken, then a series of losses follow. If you were at a table and saw this "breakout to the bottom" happen you would switch to a "losing" betting strategy. At the far right of graph #1 another breakout to the downside follows, showing another flurry of "losses." But on graph #2 there is a long "base" or "indecision pattern" showing a mix of wins and losses and during this time you would not bet, and you would wait for a breakout to either the upside or the downside. If you examine the breakouts, you would find that most of your time at this table, with these results, would show that it would be best to be on the sidelines, not betting, because only a few distinct upside or downside trends present themselves. Again, there are patterns shown here, but the practical use of the patterns is questionable. Perhaps if there were "craps teams" such as "blackjack teams" who stay at tables around the clock to detect patterns this might be useful; but for the individual player I'm afraid it's not useful. cheers, alan
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alan: No one wants to comment about this thread? But you continue to bash the concept of technical analysis in the other threads? Hmmm.
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Cymbal Man Freq. The downside on those graphs explains my kind of luck. Thanks. Almost all backsliding and rarely enough forward momentum to make a dent against the backwardness. Win 7 in a row? Lose 24 in a row (I probably miscounted a bit)? Geez.I think your graphs explain to me a lot more than I've comprehended reading through the previous recent threads in this triple flaming 7's war on you. ...Waiting for Mason to bombast now, no matter what.
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alan: Cymbal Man: when the graph goes against you, you have two options: switch to the opposite play (darkside if you were playing rightside, or rightside if you were playing darkside) OR wait on the sidelines until the graph turns to your favor.Ive been corresponding with the NG member who supplied me with the results that I plotted and he asked similar questions, including when do you bet, and when do you stop betting? The answers come from watching the trends and if they follow through. If they dont, then you have what's called "false break out" or "false signal" and you back off from betting until the signals turn your way again. A false signal is like waiting for the 5-count only to have 7-out after two more rolls.
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Doc Dice: Alan writes, "Here are two links to the two graph pages showing the plotting of 205 craps decisions."Alan, I applaud the amount of effort you put into this. However, your graphing past occurances of an extremely variable event. There is no way in god's blue heaven that you (or anyone else) can predict how dice will land. Your point of positive or negative variants being extremely short term events is what I take from your analysis. Thanks
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Lady Shooter: [nq:1]Your point of positive or negative variants being extremely short term events is what I take from your analysis.[/nq]Or, as an old crapshooter might say, "Dammit! As soon as I spotted the trend and started betting, the table would turn and I ended up losing my shirt." Lady Shooter
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alan: What I find amazing is how many of you have your mind made up.Yeah, I'll be the first admit that the concept of technical analysis of a craps table and decisions sounds "fantastic." And I'll also admit that I'm yet to put up a dollar to test this. But, we all know that patterns show themselves. We know that there are patterns, trends, variance, periods of wining and losing, of hardways showing themselves and not showing themselves, etc. So, why is it so "fantastic" that it is impossible to detect patterns as they form instead of only "after" they formed?
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Mr. V: "What I find amazing is how many of you have your mind made up."I am amazed at how much bandwidth you use up to say so little. "But, we all know that patterns show themselves. We know that there are patterns, trends, variance, periods of wining and losing, of hardways showing themselves and not showing themselves, etc." We all know that there are werewolves, vampires, santa and the easter bunny. I think it...therefore, it is? "So, why is it so "fantastic" that it is impossible to detect patterns as they form instead of only "after" they formed?" Until something forms, it is amorphous, and by definition, formless. A pattern is only evident once the information examined has already transpired. You truly are trying to grasp smoke here, alan. What's next, cat herding? roll dem bones
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alan: V, a question: do you have any knowledge of technical analysis, and have you used it for stock market or real estate investing? Let's start with that, and only that. Never mind anything else I brought up about craps just TA for stocks and property?
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Mr. V: "V, a question: do you have any knowledge of technical analysis, and have you used it for stock market or real estate investing?"No alan, I do not, although I have done quite well with real property and mutual funds. I'm set, thanks for asking... It is not necessary for me to "have any knowledge of technical analysis" in order to conclude that your attempts to discern future consequences from prior dice rolls is superstition. Not that I don't pay attention to trends on occasion, I do, but I admit it is arbitrary and capricious, a method to help determine when to play. alan, you're trying to objectify the subjective. In the words of Steve Martin..."It's impossible...to stick a piano up your nose, it's just impossible..." I think that you may be in earnest, which is good, but I am surprised you haven't determined that your doom was sealed before you began. roll dem bones
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