Okay, here's a question from, Mark thanks for the reply:, Re: How

John Kerr:

Re: How do you win at craps?
Group: rec.gambling.craps Date: Thu, Dec 8, 2005, 2:47pm (CST-2) From: (Email Removed) (alan)
GPC, Mason and Mark: here is a specific question. Please give me a specific answer. (Mark and GPC I think you might, Mason you will ignore.)
The situation at the craps table: You bought in with $500. The shooter before you is having a great hand. He's already made 7 passes. =A0=A0You started with $135 across plus double odds on your $25 line bet. You know have $1500 in your rail, and you have moved up to full odds (the point is 8, so you have $150 at risk on the passline with odds), and you have pressed up your place bets to $405 across. Another roll: Wow! Winner Eight.
Now, a new come out roll. The point is 5. This shooter now has 8 passes under his belt. What do you bet now?
Okay, thats my question. There is no WRONG answer, so what would you do? I'll give you my play first: I would bet only double odds on the 5; I would reduce my place bets to $135 across, taking $270 for my rail as profit. When the dealer would look at me "funny" for regressing, I would say to him, "I'll start pressing again after a few more numbers." My reasoning: profit protection, fear of the impending 7. Do the odds change that the 7 has a one in six chance of showing on the next roll? No.
Now, this is not imaginary. This happened.
By the way, the shooter went on to make two more numbers, NO passes, and then 7 out. Had I kept my bets up, I would have made about $200 more on the two numbers. Only had the shooter thrown three numbers would I have been better off leaving my original $405 up and working. No one knows when the 7 will show; but you can't keep betting thinking that you still have a five out of six chance that it will NOT show. Is that what you believe, that the 5 out of 6 chance that it will not show will hold keep this hot hand going forever?
=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D
Since there is no wrong answer, I'm home free on this one! I would have bet my entire bankroll on the pass line, and let it ride 8 times..The casino would have informed me that I had reached their table limit after the 5th pass, so actually I would have only bet $5,000 on the last three. Then I would have collected my winnings and made a serious pass at the long legged cocktail waitress!
What a "subjective" question!!
JB

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alan:

Okay, here's a question from the innumerate:
doesnt the chance of a passline win vary with the point?

Its a negative 1.4% before a point is established. Its a negative 33/333% for the 4 and 10?
Its a negative 20% for the 5 and 9?
Its a negative 9.09% for the 6 and 8?
Now, since Im not a "math guy," and since I am a "moron" wouldnt wouldnt the chance of multiple passline wins vary according to the numbers thrown, and the points set?
Dont jump all over, Im just asking.

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John Kerr:

Re: How do you win at craps?
Group: rec.gambling.craps Date: Thu, Dec 8, 2005, 6:59pm (CST-2) From: (Email Removed) (alan)
JB Im sorry you don't "give one rat's ass what the dealers counted them as," but I do. Im curious about things, and learning things. But in this newsgroup, if you dont already know youre a moron for asking, which is this newsgroup was taken over by spammers and there are only a half dozen regular contributors here. Everyone else was scared off by the professors of knowledge.
==
alan, in my wildest dreams, I can not imagine that you would be seeking the knowledge of what a dealer considered a pass!
"7, winner on the pass line, take the don'ts!"
"11, winner on the pass line, take the don'ts!
"8, winner on the pass line, take the don'ts!
Ever hear the stick say that?
JB

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alan:

Mark thanks for the reply:
why dont I take down my bets instead of reducing them? Because I still want to gamble, I want to stay in the game.
why didnt I reduce my bets earlier? this was a real life example, and I chose not to regress earlier. Though I did not press every bet as they hit once there was $75 on each of the outside numbers and three units on the 6 or 8.

"I'm so confused. You say the 7 has a 1 in 6 chance of showing on the next
roll, but you don't think there's a 5 out of 6 chance for it not to? Do you
not see a contradiction here?"
Apparantly you answered your own question with your next quote:

"I believe there's a 5/6 chance for each roll not to be a 7, a 1/6 chance to be
a 7. That makes it likely not to go on forever, as 1/6 chance is pretty large
in scheme of things."
There we go. We agree.

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John Kerr:

Re: How do you win at craps?
Group: rec.gambling.craps Date: Thu, Dec 8, 2005, 6:59pm (CST-2) From: (Email Removed) (alan)
Im curious about things, and learning things.
==
I'm sorry alan, but you have displayed exactly the opposite here on this ng! You contine to repeat things that you know are not true, and I am starting to believe it is intentional, just to get reccogntion...even if that attention is negative!
You know as well as I do, that a 7 or an 11, is considered a pass, when you are betting the front line!
You only brought it up because of some chart someone referred to, out of context, that was only based on making points, and you didn't like Mason's response to that out of context post!
Get a grip!
JB

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alan:

Yes JB but if you read my original question on the subject you would see that Ive played at tables where dealers have had differing views. Some considered the natural as NOT a pass, while some did.

The discussion came up most recently when I had a string of 11 winners. Four were naturals on the come out. When I said I had 11 passes, one of the dealers said "no, you had 7 passes, the naturals don't count."

So when the subject came up with another poster I asked my question.

JB, I'll take criticism when its correct, but the alan-bashing becuase its "alan asking" is not appropriate.

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alan:

JB thanks for sharing your dream. but the question was, based on the rolls, payoffs, and money at the table after eight passes, what do you do?
If I knew I was going to have 8 passes in a row BEFORE THE FIRST PASS, I would have done what you dreamed of doing. LOL
cheers

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Cat_in_awe:

[nq:1]GPC, Mason and Mark: here is a specific question. Please give me a specific answer. (Mark and GPC I think ... out roll. The point is 5. This shooter now has 8 passes under his belt. What do you bet now?[/nq]
You are right, there is not wrong or right answer. I wouldn't have those kind of bets made anyway, (not that they're bad), so I have no idea personally.
[nq:1]Okay, thats my question. There is no WRONG answer, so what would you do? I'll give you my play first: ... to him, "I'll start pressing again after a few more numbers." My reasoning: profit protection, fear of the impending 7.[/nq]
If you really want profit protection, take it ALL down including your odds.
[nq:1]Do the odds change that the 7 has a one in six chance of showing on the next roll? No. ... that the 5 out of 6 chance that it will not show will hold keep this hot hand going forever?[/nq]
Of course not. But I want to be up on the do side as long as it continues. I generally don't press much of anything, but stay up on the pass and come bets and hope we get lots of numbers before the 7-out.

Pretending that a 7 out is 'due' because the table has been hot is just the Gambler's Fallacy. The flip side of this erroneous thinking is that 'the table is hot', so I should load up and press my bets even more. Both are based on faulty thinking, and will be rewarded or punshed based on the random results about to come, not based on 'being a good bettor' that can follow a trend or 'knows' when to regress.

GPC

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Cat_in_awe:

[nq:1]JB thanks for sharing your dream. but the question was, based on the rolls, payoffs, and money at the table after eight passes, what do you do?[/nq]
Just curious, but when you step up to a table, to you quiz the dealers or players to find out how many passes the current shooter has made? If (somehow) this is important data to make future decisions, I think you'd always want to know. Or does the 'table history' only matter once you've started playing?
(Implied in my question: table history is useless information).

GPC

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Cat_in_awe:

[nq:1]Yes JB but if you read my original question on the subject you would see that Ive played at tables where dealers have had differing views. Some considered the natural as NOT a pass, while some did.[/nq]
From WinCraps:
" If the number rolled is a natural (2, 3, 7, 11, or 12) then a decision is reached immediately and the next roll will be another come-out roll. If the number rolled is a point number (4, 5, 6, 8, 9, or 10), then a point is said to be established. The dealer marks the point by turning the marker buck over to display ON and placing it on or next to the appropriately numbered point box. This is known as the shooter's point.
Once the shooter's point has been established, the shooter continues rolling until the point is rolled again or a 7 is rolled. That is to say the shooter either passes or sevens-out. It can also be said that the dice pass or don't pass. Rolling either one results in a decision and the next roll will be another come-out roll. "
This seems to imply that only making the point counts as a 'pass'. However, the majority of the recent discussions have used the opposite usage that 'pass' includes rolling a 7/11 (i.e. .49 change of making a pass).

GPC

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RE: How do you win at craps? page 11

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