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RE: How do you win at craps? page 17This is a discussion thread · 169 replies John Kerr: Re: How do you win at craps?Group: rec.gambling.craps Date: Wed, Jan 4, 2006, 10:15pm From: (Email Removed) (acpa) John, Not including you, a former dealers, I would be hesitant to consider a dealer as someone knowledgeable about the came of craps although I think most veteran dealers are good at paying the bets, handling the table, etc. What I consider is a perfect example of what I mean: I throw the stick $5 tell him to give me all the hardways and piggyback the dealers on one of the hardways. I'm amazed that a "knowledgeable" dealer would even piggyback on the 4 or 10 given a choice. The absolute dollar payout is lower than a bet on the 6 or 8 and the House Advantage is higher on a 4/10 than on a 6/8. Noah == Noah, some dealers consider the hard 10 & 4 a preferred bet for them..it wins more often than the hard 8 & 6. And they get the "correct" pay off anyway... 8 for O  ..and most of the time the player puts the bet back up for them. They figure a bird in the hand is worth more than one in the bush. I didn't agree with that, but in a way, they maybe right...they may be gone tomorrow .JB
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Cymbal Man Freq. How could a hardway win more often than any other hardway, statistically? They each have a 1/36 chance of hitting per roll!
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Sancho Panza: [nq:1]How could a hardway win more often than any other hardway, statistically? They each have a 1/36 chance of hitting per roll![/nq]Look at it from the point of view of losing less. There are two ways to make a soft 10 and four ways to make a soft 6.
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John Kerr: Cymbal..they both have the same 1-36 expectation as to each roll, but a different loss expectation, the 4 and 10 stay in action longer than the 6 and 8, thus they have more chances at the 1-36 rolls.There are two ways to lose the 4 or 10, and 3 ways to lose the 6 or 8. Actually there are really 8 ways to lose the 4 or 10, and 10 ways to lose the 6 or 8. 8-1, and 10-1 respectively. JB
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acpa: Bob,Do pay vig only on winning buy bets. If so a $20 buy results in you winning $119 on the won time you win and loseing a total of $120 on the six times the seven shows out of the average 36 rolls.so the house advantage is less than 1% if my math is right. Noah
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acpa: Alan,I played some card craps at the Morengo close to Palm Springs over the holiday. However, it was strictly cards, no dice at all, contrasted to where you play. It was a double odds table, and I noticed that the horns bet and hard ways were stated as "for" not "to". Hard ways paid what I would expect, 10 for one on 6/8 and eight for one on 4/10. However the horn numbers shorted the player, 15 for one on the 3/11 and 30 for one on the 2/12. Played almost an hour and was up about $20. Noah
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Alan Shank: [nq:1]Bob, Do pay vig only on winning buy bets. If so a $20 buy results in you winning $119 on ... seven shows out of the average 36 rolls.so the house advantage is less than 1% if my math is right.[/nq]Yes, it's only 0.71%, because you only win 1 of every 7. The lower the probability of winning, the more advantage you get from them collecting the vig only on a win. This is why it doesn't help the lay bets anywhere near as much as buy bets. Of course, if you win more than "your share" of bets, you also pay more than "your share" of vigs. Cheers, Alan Shank
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Mark Rafn: [nq:1]How could a hardway win more often than any other hardway, statistically? They each have a 1/36 chance of hitting per roll![/nq]Hardways all have the same win chance, 1/36 per roll. Hardways have DIFFERENT loss chances: 9/36 for 4 or 10, and 11/36 for 6 or 8. There are more ways to make a soft 6 or 8 than a soft 4 or 10. Mark Rafn (Email Removed)
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Anonymous: Hardways all have the same win chance, 1/36 per roll. Hardways have DIFFERENTloss chances: 9/36 for 4 or 10, and 11/36 for 6 or 8. There are more ways to make a soft 6 or 8 than a soft 4 or 10. Mark Rafn (Email Removed) Mark, should the above be 8/36 and 10/36? Golfer
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Alan Shank: [nq:2]How could a hardway win more often than any other hardway, statistically? They each have a 1/36 chance of hitting per roll![/nq][nq:1]Hardways all have the same win chance, 1/36 per roll. Hardways have DIFFERENT loss chances: 9/36 for 4 or 10, and 11/36 for 6 or 8. There are more ways to make a soft 6 or 8 than a soft 4 or 10.[/nq] Let's be clear, here. For each roll, all the hardways have a 1/36 win chance. On a decision basis, however, the 4/10 have a 1/9 chance to win, the 6/8 a 1/11, due to the different numbers of ways the bets lose. These bets resolve at different rates, also, since the 6/8 have more ways to resolve. This is the big difference between these hardways and "hopping" hardways, which resolve on each roll and have a 1/36 probability of winning on both a roll and a decision basis. For the hopping hardways, the 4/10 and 6/8 are no different from any other 35:1 shot. Cheers, Alan Shank
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