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RE: How do you win at craps? page 5This is a discussion thread · 169 replies John Kerr: Re: How do you win at craps?Group: rec.gambling.craps Date: Tue, Dec 6, 2005, 6:20pm (CST-2) From: (Email Removed) JB the chart thing in my post is real and put together by either or both of the guys cited. In the theoretical world it could be true. At the rail these numbers are there. How can it be explained? =A0 The math boys are silent. =A0 I am waiting. Should I hold my breath? Golfer =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D Golfer..Those charts are correct before the fact only! I know you are smartter than that! If I roll 10 passes in a row...the odds of doing that are over a 1,000 to 1, but now that I have done it, the odds of my rolling the eleventh one is still the same as rolling the first one! You are trying to use a cumulative factor that does not apply! Your bet on the don't pass, that I won't roll that eleventh one, is no more lkely to win than the one you bet against me on the first roll! If it were more likely to win...the casino wouldn't book it!! JB
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The Midnight Skulker: [nq:1]The higher HA is not on the comeout roll, where you can ONLY win or establish a point. The seven ... the higher HA comes from, not from the comeout roll, which actually has a 100% player advantage when it's resolved.[/nq]The higher HA comes entirely from converting a sure winner, the comeout 11, into a probable loser. A small part of this added HA is offset by converting sure losers, the comeout craps, into only probable losers. [nq:1]For even more fun, I figured out the average length of a series and hand: series: 1.833 rolls, since every point is resolved on the first roll after the comeout[/nq] What is a series? How is every point resolved on the first roll after it is established? 1 2 [nq:1]The Midnight Skulker[/nq] 9 * 3 aka Van Lewisaka (Email Removed) 6
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Mason: What is it about my post that you dispute?[nq:1]Now swithing to the Don't after one pass isn't a bad thing to do. Count how many players make more than one pass. Not that many.[/nq] Mason : The percentage of players that fail to make a second pass after making the first one is the same as the percentage of players that fail to make the first pass. The don't bet doesn't improve based on a shooter's history. .. Your posted table (source unknown) .. Golfer ... It is my understanding that the following applies to the chances of making points from the 1st on. 1=40% 2=16% 3=7% 4=3% 5=1.2% 6=.5% .. shows an approximate 40% chance for the player to make the first pass and a 40% chance for the player to make the second pass. (40% of 40% = 16%). Apparently, you failed to read either my post or your own table.
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Cymbal Man Freq. [nq:1]Your posted table (source unknown) .. Golfer ... It is my understanding that the following applies to the chances of making points from the 1st on. 1=40% 2=16% 3=7% 4=3% 5=1.2% 6=.5%[/nq].. .. [nq:1]shows an approximate 40% chance for the player to make the first pass and a 40% chance for the player to make the second pass. (40% of 40% = 16%). Apparently, you failed to read either my post or your own table.[/nq] It really depends on which specific points get established in a particular hand!
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Anonymous: I wonder why the individuals cited (read the post Mason) would make such a calculation if it was meaningless? I mean if the chances for a PL winner is 40% why would anyone calculate a figure for the probability of making 5 passes? Take the 40% to the bank and do something else. Not the ultimate question in the universe but still puzzling.Then let's look at another interesting item illustrated by the math so clearly illuminated. If the chance of success is 40% for 1 successful pass, why not consider the DP as "the" play with a 60% chance of winning? V, thanks for making the late night effort at commenting. You get points for that. However, why would we discard the numbers (%) if we are playing? If I have my choice after 5 pl winners to consider my next bet I would rather choose the .5% number than the 40%. I would bet the darkside and go from there. I get a much more warm and fuzzy from .5% than 40%. However, both are to my advantage. Anyone who plays the game can probably acknowledge the .5% number for the real world. It is very unusual to see more than 1 5 pl winner roll from a shooter in any particular session. The whole discussion illustrates (at least for me) that although math has a place in playing craps it is not the sole determining factor. 40% is put out on the table here by the members of the board. Other "experts" have put forth the table above. There is a conflict. Is there variance? Of course. Lat year I was playing the darkside in the Venetian when a young girl, who probably should have been carded, started tossing the dice. I lost 3 dp bets on her and stopped betting. I went back up on her for the 6th and lost. I went nuts on the 7th and layed $150 against her point of 9. I lost. However, day in and day out I would win more than I lost in that scenario. Don't ya love this game? Golfer
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Mr. V: "V, thanks for making the late night effort at commenting. You get points for that."Hmm The post he refers to went up at 6:34 PM. "Late night?" Only for pre-schoolers and Alzheimers patients. You've been outed, golfer. Which one is it? roll dem bones
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Cat_in_awe: [nq:1]Well I think we have an error here Mr. Mason. It is my understanding that the following applies to the ... 2=16% 3=7% 4=3% 5=1.2% 6=.5% I believe these were generated by the Wizard of Odds, Mr. Shackleford and/or Mr. Krigman.[/nq]You've made the classic misunderstanding of indivudual results and a series. Assuming the above nubmer are correct, the change of making 6 passes in a row is 0.5%. The chance of making the NEXT pass after making 5 in a row is 40% (assuming the above is correct). If the last wasn't true, you couldn't come up with the 0.5% for 6 in a row. GPC
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Cat_in_awe: [nq:1]JB the chart thing in my post is real and put together by either or both of the guys cited. ... How can it be explained? The math boys are silent. I am waiting. Should I hold my breath?[/nq]Already answered in a post above. You can't differentiate between the odds of doing something 6 times in a row and the odds of doing it once after succeeding 5 times previously. Completely different. GPC
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alan: In Wong's book, on page 169 is an interesting chart based on simulation of ten million hands. It shows, for example, that a bit more than 90% of random shooters seven out after 17 rolls. I think switching to the darkside after 17 rolls is a darn good idea.
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John Kerr: Re: How do you win at craps?Group: rec.gambling.craps Date: Wed, Dec 7, 2005, 8:53am (CST-2) From: (Email Removed) (alan) In Wong's book, on page 169 is an interesting chart based on simulation of ten million hands. It shows, for example, that a bit more than 90% of random shooters seven out after 17 rolls. I think switching to the darkside after 17 rolls is a darn good idea. == It's as good an idea as any other bet at that time. Of course if you think the shooter is gonna roll a 7 on that 18th roll...you would lose by betting a don't come. JB
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