Log-in members only
RE: OT On the subject of logic & riddles page 10This is a discussion thread · 105 replies PacPalBuzz: >>Don - I do see what you are saying. If you always switch, you will have a 1/2 chance of ending up with the prize. If, on the other hand, you always stick with your pick, you will only have a 1/3 chance of winning. However, if you just forget about whatever choice you make the first time, and if you simply flip a coin as to whether to switch or not, you will have the same 1/2 chance of ending up with the prize. Always switching is better than always sticking with your pick, but flipping a coin for your second choice gets you the same odds as always switching. Anyhow, thanks for taking the time to explain. Your quarter and pennies suggestion is excellent. Buzz
This thread originates from within 'usenet', and as such the content and users are to have been moderated by our community.
Fred: [nq:1]Bill, you are missing the point of my post. It seems you are trying to combine the two situations into ... you can choose either of the two doors and will win half of the time regardless of which you pick.[/nq]Read the other posts. You are very wrong. The two problems are not separate. It is very easy to realize the situation when there are 1,000,000 doors. After you pick 1 there is a 1 in 1,000,000 chance you are right. If you are shown 999,998 doors that the host of the show knows is wrong your door does not magically go to 1 out of 2. There is a 1 in 1,000,000 chance it is your door and 999,999 out of 1,000,000 it is the other one. Should you switch now? If the host did not know where the prize is, you would be right. He does. Fred.
This thread originates from within 'usenet', and as such the content and users are to have been moderated by our community.
PacPalBuzz: >>> That's also how I ended up with PacPalBuzz. And I wish I were that young too. > Gee, should I take the deal or not? Let's see.. Two times out of three your original choice will be black, you will switch, and you will end up with the red card. One time out of three your original choice will be black, you will switch, and you will end up with the red card. Uncle. Thanks for taking the time to explain. Sorry to be so thick headed. Buzz
This thread originates from within 'usenet', and as such the content and users are to have been moderated by our community.
PacPalBuzz: << Subject: Re: OT On the subject of logic & riddles From: Joe Long (Email Removed)Date: Sun, Jun 6, 2004 20:05 Message-id: (Email Removed) Joe - Thanks. I'm already eating crow on this one. You are right. Buzz
This thread originates from within 'usenet', and as such the content and users are to have been moderated by our community.
PacPalBuzz: >>> Don - Agreed. My apologies. Thanks for taking the time to explain. Buzz
This thread originates from within 'usenet', and as such the content and users are to have been moderated by our community.
HeatSearch: Guys I think you are simply over complicating the problem. The fact that you chose one door or the other with your first pick has no effect on which door actually holds the prize. Look at it this way: I pick door #1. Monty shows door #3. You say door #2 has a 2/3 chance of being the prize. What if Monty showed door #3 before I picked, now which door is a 2/3 chance of holding the prize? Neither of course, they are each equally likely. When there are two doors to choose from you get it right half the time.As for the poster that wanted to bet, sure I will. Just run a sim with two possibilities: A=Prize B=Gag I believe it will end in a tie. Regards, David
This thread originates from within 'usenet', and as such the content and users are to have been moderated by our community.
da pickle: What? It may be too early in the morning to be discussing this. Even though you misstate it, I think you got it. How can such a simple matter be that unintuitive?
This thread originates from within 'usenet', and as such the content and users are to have been moderated by our community.
R8480: But that is not the deal David. You cannot change it to an A/B problem. We all agree THAT is 50/50. But since you say the problem as stated is also 50/50 it should end up the same. So let's run it the way it is stated.R8480
This thread originates from within 'usenet', and as such the content and users are to have been moderated by our community.
salmoneous: [nq:1]I think the people who believe that switching doesn't improve their odds should post their score on the math section of the SAT. I'd bet they would only average about 400 or so, because this is a pretty simple problem.[/nq]I'd like to see the following people post their SAT scores: a) those people who pose a vague question with multiple possible correct answers b) those people who insist that only one of the correct answers is the answer (because they assume things not stated in the problem) and insult those people who choose a different, but equally correct answer.
This thread originates from within 'usenet', and as such the content and users are to have been moderated by our community.
DPCondit: [nq:1]If you always switch, you will have a 1/2 chance of ending up with theprize. If, on the other hand, ... coin as to whether to switch or not, you will havethe same 1/2 chance of ending up with the prize.[/nq]If you forget about which choice you made the first time, that is an entirely different problem altogether. That would simply be revealing where one of the goats/pennies was, of course that would seem to be 50/50, because you wouldn't know whether you were switching or not. [nq:1]Always switching is better than always sticking with your pick, butflipping a coin for your second choice gets you the same odds as always switching.[/nq] Now you just lost me. If your original choice has only a 1/3rd chance of being correct (and it does), how could it be 50/50 to switch? If a wrong choice is always revealed from a door you did not pick, then you are 2/3rds to switch, and only 50/50 to flip a coin.
This thread originates from within 'usenet', and as such the content and users are to have been moderated by our community.
Show more
| Have a question? People are waiting to help. Interesting stuff |
All RSS Feeds