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Jeff:

[nq:1]As far as I know there is not a bet in craps, or in the casino for that matter, that favors the player. So why would any of you math guys ever play craps is beyond me.[/nq]
For the entertainment. And the possibility of coming out ahead. As has been stated many times, simply because the odds are against you doesn't mean you can't win. It's called variance.
[nq:1]Craps is a live game with ebbs and flows. I did not come out here professing to win every time I play. Yet because I tried to say that I try to parlay or take advantage of a deveation I get called ignorant.[/nq]
If you're making bets because you expect a streak to continue, then that is ignorant.
[nq:1]I was just trying to advance a discussion amomg craps players. Not trying to talk anyone into anything or sell ... horses. If you play the game and enjoy talking about it, talk about it. How do the math wizards play?[/nq]
I play pass/come with odds, to keep the HA as low as possible.

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Golfer:

You are right. A die going off axis might not be random. Your good friend Heavy is a prime example. He throws a ton of off axis hard 10's.
The comment was intended to illustrate the point that in some cases a shooter, not an accomplished advantage shooter, can improve their chances slightly by setting the dice to a seven avoidance set and trying to maintain that configuration while throwing. For those times when they "luckily" keep the die on axis they have reduced the 7's (1/8 vs. 1/6). Would that not be correct?
Golfer

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Mr. V:

"How do the math wizards play?"
I believe most play pass line and come, with odds.

I too sometimes wonder why a Math Boy would gamble at all, knowing that the house has the edge on every bet.
Answer: they enjoy the action, same as you do.
Gambling is a powerfully attractive (and addictive) activity in part because it mixes hope, greed, and adrenalin, with a healthy dollop of fear tossed in for good measure.
A real emotional roller coaster, bound to liven up our blow-dried, manicured and 401-K'ed daily lives.
It would seem to tap the deep down hard-wiring we humans are born with, the "fight or flight" reaction.
We play craps because we want to; our approach to the game is dictated by our point of view.
Having said that, here is an aggressive variation I will try soon, hoping for "only" 3 hits on the 6 or 8 before the seven showss:

Place 6 and 8 for $18;
Whichever hits, toss in $3 and press both up to $30.

Whichever hits, toss in $1 and press both up to $48.

Whichever hits, come down on both.
Profit on 3 hits of either 6 or 8: $112.
I have never pressed as aggressively as this system would require, but it seems a fair bet, for the anticipated reward.
roll dem bones

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Alan Shank:

[nq:1]As far as I know there is not a bet in craps, or in the casino for that matter, that favors the player. So why would any of you math guys ever play craps is beyond me.[/nq]
This is a perfect example of the ignorance that ausound and others trumpet about the math of craps. "All the bets favor the house, so you can't win." "The HA is the only craps math." This, despite the fact that I and several others constantly post information to the contrary, showing that variation is a major factor and is what gives us a chance to win.
You can keep your head in the sand, along with ausound, or you can learn something. Your choice.
Cheers,
Alan Shank

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stacy_friedman:

[nq:1]As far as I know there is not a bet in craps, or in the casino for that matter, that favors the player. So why would any of you math guys ever play craps is beyond me.[/nq]
Same reason as you it's a fun game. There are many mathematicians who don't gamble at all. I don't think anyone on this forum is in that group, though.
[nq:1]Look at the math you can't win.[/nq]
That's what you think the math says, but you're very wrong about that. This false notion is also why you don't understand why someone who knows the math would play craps.
Fact is, even if you play pass and full-odds (3/4/5) for 200,000 bets, you've still got about a one in 10 chance of winning overall. Think about how long you'd have to play to make 200,000 bets. You may not ever get there, and that means you've got better than 1 in 10 chance of being a lifetime winner on the passline.
I only know this because I did the math. Still think it's useless?

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Alan Shank:

[nq:1]I too sometimes wonder why a Math Boy would gamble at all, knowing that the house has the edge on every bet. Answer: they enjoy the action, same as you do.[/nq]
A partial answer, the other part being: because variation gives us a chance to win and actually guarantees that some people will win, even though players taken as a group will lose.
[nq:1]Gambling is a powerfully attractive (and addictive) activity in part because it mixes hope, greed, and adrenalin, with a healthy dollop of fear tossed in for good measure.[/nq]
Fear is not a factor for me, because I do not gamble with money I cannot afford to lose.
[nq:1]A real emotional roller coaster, bound to liven up our blow-dried, manicured and 401-K'ed daily lives.[/nq]
That it is.
[nq:1]Having said that, here is an aggressive variation I will try soon, hoping for "only" 3 hits on the 6 ... have never pressed as aggressively as this system would require, but it seems a fair bet, for the anticipated reward.[/nq]
If you read my post comparing this to ndc's (where is old ndc, BTW?) allegedly "superior" "hit, regress, leave up" strategy, you can probably guess that this will be just another tradeoff, expected to lose more because the action is more, but also yielding that $112 win almost 25% of the time. Yes, this is aggressive, but you still have your "conservative" move of pulling your bets after 3 hits, which saves the $112 but does not take full advantage of longer streaks.

Your expected loss per shooter will be higher with this than with the two methods I compared before. However, if the dice roll "in rhythm" with your method you could do quite well.
Cheers,
Alan Shank

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stacy_friedman:

[nq:2]If we assume for the sake of argument that dice ... of what you intended! Fact is it COULD hurt.[/nq]
[nq:1]You are right. A die going off axis might not be random. Your good friend Heavy is a prime example. ... they "luckily" keep the die on axis they have reduced the 7's (1/8 vs. 1/6). Would that not be correct?[/nq]
No - not all of it. If you can luckily keep the dice on axis while using a seven-avoidance set, you may very well reduce the chances of sevens appearing. But that's only part of the story. The rest of the time, you make the unwarranted assumption that the dice will behave randomly. How do you know this? As many have claimed, it is possible for the dice to go off-axis and behave in a consistent fashion. If that's true, it may be the case that the behavior of the dice when you do not keep them on axis increases the probability of sevens beyond what is random. If this is the case, it may also be true that your overall chances of rolling a seven have actually increased.

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Jim Ferr:

[nq:1]I too sometimes wonder why a Math Boy would gamble at all, knowing that the house has the edge on every bet. Answer: they enjoy the action, same as you do.[/nq]
That is very well-put. I used to wonder that also. We do many things at times when the result is not certain. There is risk in almost everything. Some of us enjoy that risk. In fact, that very risk is addicting to some of us.

Jim..
(Email address: (Email Removed))
FREE Gaming Strategies & Methods
No catch, not selling anything
Full URL: http://hometown.aol.com/jimferr/myhomepage/profile.html

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Jim Ferr:

[nq:1]Fact is, even if you play pass and full-odds (3/4/5) for 200,000 bets, you've still got about a one in ... being a lifetime winner on the passline. I only know this because I did the math. Still think it's useless?[/nq]
Very good observation and calculation, Stacy. Thanks for all that you contribute to this group.
Jim..
(Email address: (Email Removed))
FREE Gaming Strategies & Methods
No catch, not selling anything
Full URL: http://hometown.aol.com/jimferr/myhomepage/profile.html

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Thunder7:

Ok I think I have it now. When I win a bet it is just dumb luck but when a math wizard wins it is because he bet on a "variance" to occure. Please explain how you decide what and when to bet the "variance." Being stupid I bet on streaks, or the unusual to occure. But this could be a real eye opener for the rest of us. Not streaks, not something strange like 2 horn numbers in a row. But a "variance!" I was stupid to the tune of plus $800 today.

Those variances were very good to me today. Now, it doesn't happen everytime. If it did it wouldn't be a variance. So that makes me think how can you bet a variance and win? Because if it happens once then it is no longer a variance but could almost be called the expected result in the short term. Which, I would imagine, is why bet it in the first place. Not because it was a variance but because it was what you expected.

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RE: Real bets / Fun bets page 5

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