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Real bets / Fun betsThis is a discussion thread · 83 replies shell: I was told about this newsgroup and I've been lurking, and I'm afraid that I am a bit disappointed.I came to this group looking for real talk about real action at the tables, and not the results from computers. All this talk about math, all this insulting "true craps players" who go by hunches, senses, the feel of the game and even superstition. I've been playing for years, and if any of you came to a table with a notebook the rest of us would probably color up and move to another table. Of course, I'm sure you will shoot me down just as you shoot down other real players... But would the others who have real talk about real play please turn the tide of this group and post some real stories? avoid those center table bets just put the bet money in your pocket instead of on the table, "that's what the book says." They were pointing to the props and the horn. "But those are the big money bets," the dealer opposite me said. "They're a losing bet," said one of the young guys. "They're the fun bets," I said. Just then the shooter rolled a yo, and my $5 horn high yo hit. "See?" I said. Next roll was midnight. I was paid again. Next roll was aces. I was paid again. Another aces. Another pay off. The two guys walked away to the blackjack side of the room. Yeah, follow the book. Stay away from those bets in the middle of the table. And put that bet-money in your pocket. Shell
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billb: I dealt this game last year and you're right, in the short run those sucker bets can pay off a lot. I saw it happen. And I also saw a lot of the pass and don't pass players get chewed up and spit out, but it goes the other way too.there is no way to win, so why bother. play for entertainment and leave it at that. billb
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QuiGon: [nq:1]But would the others who have real talk about real play please turn the tide of this group and post some real stories?[/nq]I was once at Mohegan playing a $5 table... Some guy in a wheelchair rolls up and, I am not trying to be mean here, he looked a bit mentally challenged. So this dude who can't even comb his hair pulls out a wad and asks for all black (it was something like $4,000). So he's betting like mad.. $1,000 here... $500 there... Anytime he won, he would up the bet... Eventually when he lost it all, he would pull out another wad, and repeat the above steps... He did it a third time even - must have lost about $12 grand in total... and when the final chip was lost, he just rolled away... Couldn't have taken longer than 8 minutes... (and no it wasn't that guy who owns Hustler Magazine, but it reminded me of him)
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Golfer: Shell, you are right about the tone of the board.I would suggest Heavy's 2 sites, Axis craps and the wrong way board. Irishsetter's board is also very good. All 3 have session report sections that are un to read, even if you do not believe in advantage shooting. Posting those reports here only attract ridicule. For confirmation see alan's threads. Good Luck Golfer
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Alan Shank: [nq:1]I was told about this newsgroup and I've been lurking, and I'm afraid that I am a bit disappointed. I ... came to a table with a notebook the rest of us would probably color up and move to another table.[/nq]I have never gone to a craps table with a notebook. Actually, the only people I have ever seen writing stuff down, were people who were looking for a trend to bet with or against, just the sort of "hunch, feel, superstition" you are talking about. [nq:1]Of course, I'm sure you will shoot me down just as you shoot down other real players... But would the others who have real talk about real play please turn the tide of this group and post some real stories?[/nq] As with any usenet group, different people are looking for different things. It's not likely that anyone is going to be interested in every thread. You pick and choose. [nq:1]avoid those center table bets just put the bet money in your pocket instead of on the table, "that's what ... the book. Stay away from those bets in the middle of the table. And put that bet-money in your pocket.[/nq] What is your anecdote supposed to prove? That these bets sometimes win? Has anyone ever doubted that? One of the things probability math, as related to craps, can tell you is that these bets have a very high variance. Because of the high payoffs, it only takes a little good luck to come out ahead. However, you are just as likely to have a little bad luck. The very high house advantage on these bets is the "handicap" that you luck has to overcome. It's every player's individual choice whether to accept the high vig in return for the high variance. Perhaps you could learn something by reading this group. Cheers, Alan Shank
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stacy_friedman: [nq:1]I was told about this newsgroup and I've been lurking, and I'm afraid that I am a bit disappointed. I came to this group looking for real talk about real action at the tables, and not the results from computers.[/nq]You're right there aren't enough trip reports here. [nq:1]All this talk about math, all this insulting "true craps players" who go by hunches, senses, the feel of the game and even superstition.[/nq] Wait a minute: I'm not superstitious, I don't go by hunches, and I understand probability theory. Does that mean I'm not a true craps player? [nq:1]But would the others who have real talk about real play please turn the tide of this group and post some real stories?[/nq] Last weekend I walked up to a $10 table in the Venetian. On one side were two middle-aged ladies, dripping in gold and diamonds, making $25 bets on the passline and come. The one next to me had at least a 5-carat round brilliant on her right ring finger. On the other side, smoking large cigars, were two middle-aged men making pass bets in the range of several hundred dollars (and taking full odds). It became very clear that these were two married couples after one man failed to make an eleven on the comeout and one of the women, presumably his wife, scolded him: "Come on! I told you to make an eleven!" To which he replied: "Stop with the orders already! Stop telling me what to do!" He ended up having a nice hand and his buddy, who was pressing the line with full odds, ended up with a fist-high stack of black chips backed up with an equal stack of purple (5x odds on the 8) before missing his point. By that point, he had at least $50,000 in his rack. When all was said and done, he didn't leave with nearly that much. I was next, made two points and then sevened out. Then the wife starts playing and her husband, the previous shooter, started barking about which numbers to make and which hardways to roll. She snapped back: "What did you say about telling me what to do?" (snipped: story of several consecutive horn numbers) [nq:1]Yeah, follow the book. Stay away from those bets in the middle of the table. And put that bet-money in your pocket.[/nq] As to the horn and other prop bets, if they're fun, go ahead and bet them. If hopping hardways are fun, bet them. Just be smart enough to know how long your bankroll is likely to last with those high-vig prop bets vs. the lower-vig line or inside place bets. If you're okay with that, play the game the way you want. But don't think for a second that the reason you won money on the horn bet was anything other than luck. You got lucky. In fact, you were remarkably lucky to win all those horn bets in a row. From that standpoint, it takes far less luck to win the same amount of money on the passline. You might not like to hear it, but that's just the way it is. If you think "bet the passline" is bad advice, that's your call.
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Alan Shank: [nq:1]As to the horn and other prop bets, if they're fun, go ahead and bet them. If hopping hardways are ... a row. From that standpoint, it takes far less luck to win the same amount of money on the passline.[/nq]Actually, for a small number of bets, I don't think that's true. For example, compare 10 $5 horn high twelve bets to 10 $5 passline bets. The expectation for the horn is -$6.39, but the SD is $37.80, while the PL ev is -.71 with a SD of $15.81. If each player comes out one standard deviation better than expectation, the horn player wins $31.41 compared to $15.10 for the PL player. The breakeven point is .348 SD better than expectation, where each player wins $4.55. Below that, the PL player does better. The key, of course, is that an extra 12 goes a long way! The more bets you make, however, the more significant the ev compared to the standard deviation. The point at which the passline player wins more at HH12 player is 150 bets. Cheers, Alan Shank
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Mr. V: I went to Mohegan Sun once, and enjoyed it.Two different craps pits, two different atmospheres. I wandered around, chips in hand, playing hit and run. Memorable: Walked up to a table, placed 6 and 8 for $12 each. 6 hit; I tossed in $4: "Six goes to $30." 6 hit again; tossed in a buck: "Six goes to $66." 6 hit again. I took down all my bets, rat holed my winnings, and walked away. roll dem bones
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CldCtySoft: [nq:1]So this dude who can't even comb his hair pulls out a wad and asks for all black (it was ... in total... and when the final chip was lost, he just rolled away... Couldn't have taken longer than 8 minutes...[/nq]Let me guess ... he was playing those "fun" bets, right? Perhaps all he needed were a few more hunches, feelings, and superstitions. Regards, Steen WinCraps http://www.cloudcitysoftware.com
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stacy_friedman: [nq:1]Posting those reports here only attract ridicule. For confirmation see alan's threads.[/nq]Alan attracted ridicule, as it were, not because of his trip reports but because he claimed to be a precision shooter in spite of not even trying to keep the dice on axis. He was unable to explain why he thought his technique could influence the dice, and my observation provided no evidence that he could. His trip report itself was just fine, albeit brief. But perhaps you understand something I don't. Can you please explain how someone whose throws bounce inconsistently and roll off axis can nonetheless achieve an advantage over the house?
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