http://igamingforums.com/search/pro.htm?q=tag%3aPoker+tag%3aBettingSearch results for 'tag:Poker tag:Betting' matching tags 'Poker' and 'Betting'en-USCSMOD (Build: 3273.32735)http://igamingforums.com/iGaming/Iphone3gAndIgaming/czk/post.htm#673Thu, 24 Jul 2008 18:52:23 GMTe9fc6c38-44c2-448e-ad72-ab9133b77580:673chelsea4meI think it s a wicked idea and technology and gaming has lead igaming to where it is today My only concern similar to the one you expressed with poker players not being able to play at multiple tables is that I use betting odds comparison sites and I think the phone will be too small for me to be able to view all companines on a comparison site easily I suppose it s best use will be for regular punters and not those trying to make living off betting http://igamingforums.com/iGaming/InternetGamblingInAWayOt/gpnm/post.htm#34046Mon, 23 Aug 2004 22:17:18 GMTe9fc6c38-44c2-448e-ad72-ab9133b77580:34046bob rBack during the com bubble Mike Caro wrote an article for some magazine about how poker concepts apply to the stock market The one that stuck in my mind was to know who you re betting against when you make those trades http://igamingforums.com/iGaming/6000RollsVs1069007Rolls/gphz/post.htm#33937Sun, 22 Aug 2004 22:34:19 GMTe9fc6c38-44c2-448e-ad72-ab9133b77580:33937mason nq 1 So how can I win too By studying alternatives to probability mathematics and knowing that the way to win is through bet variation not betting to drive down the negative expectation while increasing bet variation nq You do not understand your results The probability model of craps can not be used to disprove the probability model of craps What these results show is that the probability model of craps allows a player to be winning over all after 6000 rolls assuming these results are accurately recorded I have used EXACTLY the same simulator program to show that a player can have NEVER been BEHIND at any point in over all results for a session of over 1 000 000 rolls simply betting the line with double odds I first posted this result on 02 20 1996 under the thread title of In the long run we ll all be dead This can be confirmed by a Google search A copy of that post from Google follows I have come to believe that my estimate of an average 120 rolls per hour in that piece is very high The quote from below that is relevant to this repeated posting above by Redleathers is IF MR BONES was UNAWARE ofjust how long the long run is his ignorance could lead him to seek some explanation for results which he would interpret as beating the odds 02 20 1996 In the long run we ll all be dead I was recently re reading Mason Malmuth on GAMBLING THEORY AND OTHERTOPICS In the section on fluctuations Malmuth gives calculations for poker and blackjack in showing how the amount of play which must be done for a bettor with a positive expectation to be ASSURED of a win In other words what is the long run for the bettor As in a player with a positive expectation is assured a win in the long run The figures given as the theoretical long run were quite surprising I began to wonder what the long run would be for the craps table I realized almost immediately if not sooner that I was not competent to do the math I am sure that there are readers of this news group who are I would greatly encourage them to do so and post their results here I did have Ken Elliot s CrapSim with its Syssim module So I took the brute force way out by running simulations Since a simulation would be most unlikely to run at theoretical limits I knew that any number I got would be a vague approximation of the maximum value However I suspected that the figures arrived at might be instructive So in an attempt to get an approximate answer to the length of craps play for a player to be ASSURED of a LOSS given the negative expectation of the craps bet I ran two simulations of 100 000 trials each I used a simple pass line bet with double odds SIMPLE PASS and a pass line bet with double odds and two come bets SIMPLE PONZER The trial stopping parameters were simple As long as the trial is winning continue When the trial is at any loss stop I reasoned that the number of rolls for the longest running trial would give an approximation I am unsure as to how close an approximation of the long run for that bet Results Simple Pass 1 069 007 rollsSimple Ponzer 658 920 rollsLet me be clear This means that after placing the first bet a bettor lets call him MR BONES got ahead and stayed ahead for the indicated number of rolls At 120 rolls per hour a fairly brisk pace that means that MR BONES was a long run winner Simple Pass 8 900 hoursSimple Ponzer 5 400 hoursof play with money at risk If you view the time in play as a standard full time job 40 hrs per week 50 weeks per year gotta have a vacation and weekends free Simple Pass 4 4 yearsSimple Ponzer 2 7 yearsof full time WINNING PLAY I believe that if each person who posts to this news group were to keep MR BONES in mind the nature of many postings would change MR BONES means that you can play craps for an entire life time of recreational play and win In doing so YOU ARE NOT BEATING THE ODDS You have just not played for the long run You are still within standard fluctuation expectation MR BONES could have engaged in some form of ritual practice when placing his bets Each time the dice were thrown he could have crossed his fingers he could have whispered WA HOO he could have thought of the dealers naked MR BONES could be convinced that the ritual practice was the causative agent for his winning streak IF MR BONES was UNAWARE of just how long the long run is his ignorance could lead him to seek some explanation for results which he would interpret as beating the odds Mr BONES could have engaged in some form of charting A simple example would be placing his bet only after qualifying the shooter That is waiting for a shooter who had made his first pass This would approximately double the CLOCK time at the table needed in order to get the in PLAYING time for the long run accomplished Here are two examples of postings that could change were the writer to remember MR BONES 1 In response to a posting which reports big wins using betting SYSTEM X Without MR BONES You betting system idiots are all alike All bets on the crap table have a negative expectation They are independent trials Nothing can overcome that fact You will lose Don t waste my time with this stuff With MR BONES no post or Congratulations on your win A word of warning the longer that you play SYSTEM X the more likely you are to be a loser You could continue to win for your entire life and I hope that you do but each time you play you are less likely to be an overall winner 2 Without MR BONESA post occurs I have been using SYSTEM X every weekend for the last six months and I am way way ahead This system really works What do you bunch of MATH WEANIES have to say about that or How can you MATH WEANIES explain all the wining crap shooters You can t tell me that there aren t any I know a bunch In fact I am one myself With MR BONES no post or You cannot state with certainty that your results are beating the odds until you have played for the long run You have yet not done so You cannot logically assert that your decision as to when to make a particular bet effects the long term results of your betting until you have exceeded the long run for that bet Until then your anecdotal report may be interesting but it cannot demonstrate anything conclusive on a slightly lighter note I have one further point to make for your consideration I think that the Casino Personnel are just as unaware of the length of the long run as are most crapshooters Picture MR BONES entering a Casino at 9 00 am going to a crap table buying in for three thousand dollars He waits for a qualified shooter He puts one thousand on the line and backs it with two thousand odds He continues to make this bet until the qualified shooter sevens out He makes the exact same betting sequence repeatedly He plays until 5 00 pm an hour off for lunch He leaves the Casino and leaves his current bankroll on deposit with the cage The next morning MR BONES returns He takes his bankroll from the cage and repeats his performance of the day before This process continues for over SIX YEARS seven days a week MR BONES NEVER BUYS AGAIN He also never tips but that s another story Would you care to speculate on the reaction of the CASINO Do you think that they might notice MR BONES For the more technically minded how much free booze could MR BONES drink during this period At what point would he become a hopeless drunk How could he tell he was a drunk Would MR BONES be on Full RFB comp for the entire time Would the Casino have him assassinated or put him on a Billboard What are the odds MR BONES would write a book What are the odds that you would buy it I am most interested in any reaction and comments AS FOR ME I know that crapshooting has a negative expectation and that I will lose in the long run but I ll just do it till I need glasses WA HOO Masonhttp://igamingforums.com/iGaming/DutchDamrakcasinoLanguage/gpbl/post.htmFri, 20 Aug 2004 21:06:30 GMTe9fc6c38-44c2-448e-ad72-ab9133b77580:33841damrak casinoHAVE FUN Online casino games poker betting on the Olympics or any other type sport play games for free or for money roulette blackjack lottery slotmachines JUST ENJOY YOURSELF AT HOME Just go to the bottom of www damrakcasino nl and choose any language http://igamingforums.com/iGaming/WhyDoYouPlayCraps/2/gxdg/Post.htm#33581Sat, 14 Aug 2004 03:48:37 GMTe9fc6c38-44c2-448e-ad72-ab9133b77580:33581jay nq 1 Well Jay life is 6 to 5 against Do we simply quit life Action is action fun is fun jim in Va nq Jim I like them odds To me action and winning is the most fun next comes action and trying my best to win which includes losing There are cheaper ways to just have fun But that is just my view Perhaps I spent too much time in action I spent almost two years as a subsistance pro poker That means I depended on winning for my money That doesn t include the time leading up to that decision which was considerable believe me I wouldn t recommend it because it s actually too much like work You lose touch with reality family and all values and ideals that most hold dear in exchange for a life of action I like my present life better and I have given it much thought I love my present life and it also includes gambling I am somewhat surprised that there are so many that are taking the total recreational view I m sorry but I can t help but to equate people who take that view as losing players I say this because it is difficult enough to stay on top even when every fiber in your body is intent on winning To me its inconceivable to play otherwise Good Luck Jayhttp://igamingforums.com/iGaming/WhyDoYouPlayCraps/gnqk/post.htmFri, 13 Aug 2004 16:28:00 GMTe9fc6c38-44c2-448e-ad72-ab9133b77580:33517jayAs you know gambling is no way to make a living right Does the casino gamble Then it s obvious that to consistently win at games of chance you must either have the odds in your favor or have some sort of edge working for you That s not gambling We can deduce that a pro doesn t gamble in the true sense of the word Who would go to work or do a service and flip a coin to see if he gets paid for his efforts or expertise There are quite a few pro gamblers that do also play craps What s going on with that Wait a minute all the math guys here claim they also play I feel better now forget I asked about it Where is all this leading us It s leading to Craps is a gambling game so why do we play There is no edge to gain ever There is not one favorable bet that ever arises as in poker or sports betting for example There are not any one shot huge risk to reward pay outs as in the slots or lotteries You could get sore feet A superior math knowledge or great intellect cannot be used to advantage over the house or the other players at the table It is damn near impossible as well as inadvisable to try to gain advantage by cheating The average casual gambling tourist finds the game too complicated or intimidating to learn Much easier to play the slots keno big wheel or roulette I didn t say easier to win I said easier to learn and play Not a lot going for it Why play What is the draw The die hard Dont player believes that since he can t win on the Pass line it must be easier for him to book a win on the Dont side When laying the odds pressing can easily wipe out any previous gains so the vast majority of die hard Dont players are advocates of grinding Extremely rare are the monster wins on the Dont The reason being twofold 1 The dangers of pressing especially associated with the come out 2 Most Right players would shortly pick up and leave the cold table Has anyone ever seen three or four Dont players continuing a game amongst themselves That would be interesting How many people play in a totally random fashion Going from Pass line to any craps to the Dont etc I have never personally seen this Has anyone else Each and every roll is random so why not play randomly like Alan suggested as an alternative I wouldn t do it because first of all it is repugnant to me and most importantly it would definitely increase the HA against me Right players prospects aren t any better than the Dont player or the random player No matter how you play you lose This must mean that the only draw to the game is the streak or trend and all that this envisions the pressing to table limits the rush etc All the alternatives lead to a loss and the gloom associated with losses A streak or trend is the only way we can win and therefore what we are looking for So what is all the fuss about someone rooting for a potential streak and going with this possibility Going for a win Why else play Gambler s Fallacy or not if you don t try to play the streak or trend what could you possibly play for What motivation could you have other than the trend Math guys please pontificate on the above Maybe I am missing something in what you are saying Regards Jayhttp://igamingforums.com/iGaming/Craps/gnlw/post.htmWed, 11 Aug 2004 21:00:40 GMTe9fc6c38-44c2-448e-ad72-ab9133b77580:33430tymelordCraps is the only game in the casino I play other than poker I don t play for big stakes in either but a good limit poker player does almost no gambling The only time to bet when you are not the favorite to win is when you can bully your opponents into folding or the Pot odds offer a better payout than the chance of drawing out Since craps is a gamble but only about 0 5 loss exp w 10x odds craps offers a chance to gamble w o getting ripped off It also offers a chance to double or triple your money quickly if the dice are hot where limit poker could take 5 to ten hours to do the same if you don t play like a maniac Tymelordhttp://igamingforums.com/iGaming/PokerPlayerPlayingCraps/gncw/post.htm#33277Mon, 09 Aug 2004 22:55:26 GMTe9fc6c38-44c2-448e-ad72-ab9133b77580:33277john kerr I m just curious how you poker players out there al play craps I tried string betting at craps they wouldn t let me get away with it there either JBhttp://igamingforums.com/iGaming/ActualContent/5/gncb/Post.htm#33270Mon, 09 Aug 2004 22:08:53 GMTe9fc6c38-44c2-448e-ad72-ab9133b77580:33270paul a morris nq 2 If we were playing hold em and you were holding the to be at risk I wouldn t but that is me nq nq 1 No I wouldn t But if you are still in the hand you would And your answering bet would seem to be money at risk to you but according to you it isn t nq It would seem to me that is was at risk But that would be because I had incomplete information If I knew that you had the nuts I would know that any further money in the pot carried no risk reward nq 2 You didn t answer my question from before Do you consider of money at risk in order to quantify your risk nq nq 1 You are risking 5 in both cases In one case you have the best of it In the other case chances of winning unless you see all the cards exposed In those cases you are watching television not playing poker nq When we are playing craps though we always know our odds So we can always make comparisons including not only the bet handle but also the inherent risk reward of the bet nq 1 I don t say that the amount at risk is the ONLY measure of risk I say that it is a how incredible this assertion is on those rare occasions where you don t have the stone cold nuts on the river nq I think I must have misunderstood I thought you were saying that an equal bet handle constitutes commensurate risk So by that I took you to mean that bet handle was the only measure of risk From what you just said I agree with you The magnitude of a bet clearly has an effect on the risk of that wager When combined with the SD of the bet you can get a complete picture of the risk of that wager When I said The amount of money at risk is not a measure of risk I was stating that by my interpretation the magnitude of a bet does not itself determine how risky a bet is It just allows us to scale the inherent risk of the bet to find the risk of any particular wager Kind of like Risk profile of wager magnitude x inherent risk of that betThis is my personal interpretation though and from what you say I think we both agree on the overall picture That both the magnitude and variance of a wager are required to understand the risk profile of the wager Regards Paulhttp://igamingforums.com/iGaming/TripReportAug68/gmpj/post.htmMon, 09 Aug 2004 05:04:16 GMTe9fc6c38-44c2-448e-ad72-ab9133b77580:33210moneylaHi Just back played at MGM and Caesars I stayed at MGM with my girlfriend as we had comped tickets for Rod Stewart and RFB Stewart concert was great BUT not great enough to keep us there past the intermission The intermission came about 70 minutes into the show and by this time we were Rod Stewarted out and decided to go back to the casino I don t know if that was a mistake or not to leave the show early as you ll see in this report on the play Got into MGM about 10pm Friday checked in unpacked and we were playing by 10 30pm My girlfriend s budget for the trip was a strict 300 plus a 100 credit from MGM for slot play I went with 1 000 We didnt want to spend much because next weekend we re going to Caesars for Faith Hill s show One of our main reasons for going this weekend was hair I had a haircut appointment and she had a color appointment Back to Friday night My girlfriend finds a lucky VP machine and cashes out about 3am Saturday with 2 500 No royals but lots of four of a kind four aces full houses Playing 1 VP 5 a play My first stop was a craps table that was 10 min and I lost my first 300 buy in but fortunately I got a few hours of play out of it Next stop my favorite 50 play VP machine which has given me several jackpots in the past By the way this is the 50 play VP in front of Starbucks and when you sit at it you are looking at the Grand Cafe and the Sushi restaurant There are six 50 play machines make sure this is the ONLY one you play On the main aisle In the past I ve hit it for 5 000 2500 2000 all on nickels which is 12 50 per play for all 50 hands I put 100 in and got some good play time and then it dealt four 4s which yielded 13 four 4s with kickers on triple double bonus poker Payoff was 2 040 I tipped the floor person 40 for the payoff Then back to the craps table about 1 30am bought in for 500 This time the table was up to 25 One shooter ahead of me I got the dice did my usual spread across all the numbers and double odds Had a good roll and colored up 1 700 with two shooters after me having very very good rolls Girlfriend went to the room at 3am I stayed in the casino It was a grind until about 5am not much up or down Then I changed tables and this table was good I had a decent hand but only gained about 350 6am Saturday or about never really kept track of time Another 25 table just cleared out after it went ice cold so I went over took my position at stick right No other players I had 700 in chips in my rail First hand point seven disaster Lost 135 across plus 25 pass and double odds Second hand point seven disaster Repeat of the same loss Third hand Point was four Rolled a few numbers and hit the 4 My luck had changed I held the dice for quite a while I dont remember how long but when the next player came to the table I had already put three yellows in my pocket and had another 1500 or so of blacks in my rail with all of the place bets pressed up to black or double black I think the 6 and 8s were pressed to 210 No hardways ever even though I was throwing them But when the other two players bought in and placed their first bets the inevitable 7 out came I stayed at the table as the morning players started to come to the tables By 7 30 in the morning I had a total of 4 500 Got some sleep then to Caesars for my haircut and about two hours of play I colored up with a 200 profit at the craps table but dumped 800 playing slots and video poker Back to MGM Before I go up to the room I stop at the 5 Wheel of Furtune machine Put in 300 and cash out for 900 Then to the room for room service dinner and the concert When I went back to the casino after the concert disaster hit Of the 4500 I had in my wallet I LOST about 4300 in about two hours Craps was disaster after disaster VP was a disaster period My girlfriend however while Im dumping my bankroll has hit a royal for 8 000 2 game 10 per play plus she has another 1 700 from the previous night s 2 500 It s about 1am sunday and she goes up to the room She says don t blow all your money but what she didnt know was that I already had So after she goes up so I know she s not looking I hit the ATM for another thousand Luck returns By 6 45am Sunday at various tables thanks to many other shooters I win back what I had dumped and colored up with 5 600 that s what I brought home The hottest table was about 5am at MGM the table got hot with a don t shooter who was rolling and had 50 on the dont pass plus was making DC bets His first roll was a 4 After several numbers he hit the 4 He rolls again point is 9 a couple of numbers and he hits the 9 Then he switches to the passline and to right way betting and keeps rolling for another half hour Next shooter ten minute roll Next shooter another ten minute roll then my turn Because the table was crowded only 3 tables open at that time of the morning I could not get my usual stick right or stick left position I was stuck in the corner by the DC box Frankly there was no way that I could even hope to give the dice a controlled throw from that position so I just picked up the dice shook em in my hands and let them fly they bounced all over And about 15 minutes later I sevened out the table stayed hot When I had about 5 500 in chips in my pocket I left the table and went to bed We left Sunday afternoon without playing another game I had a 3 500 profit on the trip and my girlfriend was up about 9 200 A note about tipping when I was having my good rolls the dealers were on the passline for 10 with FULL odds That was at MGM At Caesars during my best roll I had the dealers on all the numbers for 27 across and then after a few more wins I pressed them up to 54 across this was in additon to the 10 passline bet I made for them The dealer bets added to the good karma of the weekend By the way NO HEAT at MGM this time for setting when I did set But one boxman floorman they do both said to me you look like you know what you re doing And you ve played here before haven t you Yes I said the last time was about a year ago and you threw me out He laughed thinking I was kidding But I wasn t cheers alan